Weekly Stocks Notes: Feb 23-27, 2015

If I had money to buy stocks right now...

I really like AGI's chart right now. MACD finally broke into an uptrend and volume is looking good. Smoothed RSI is at tolerable 57%. Buying below 25 is a really good option, I guess the only question is will it be able to break 27 resistance sooner. The last it was challenged about three weeks ago was unsuccessul, but moving averages and MACD is looking much better now than last time.

I think MPI and NIKL is also worth a look for really short trades. It's important to set your targets and stick with it though.

Will TEL and VLL reverse soon? I probably give too importance to volume too much than needed, but whenever a stock crosses oversold levels I stay alert.

Disclaimer:

The information provided may not be as relevant today given the time gaps and change in varying economic conditions. This article is just an opinion of one person based on his personal knowledge and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell. I cannot be held liable for any investment decisions made in consequence to these articles.

I Lost 6.19% Because I Sold Too Early

I bought PIP last Jan 9 at 3.98 because I thought it was due for an uptrend. I did my homework, I studied the chart and its fundamentals, and I seriously believed it was undervalued. I set a target price of 4.45, just below its immediate resistance. That would give me a nice 10.31% upside. A sound plan, only problem I foresee is its lack of volume.

When it was still at the same level a few days later, I added more shares at 4.

The following trading days, it peaked at 4.28 only to pull back again to 4. 

Three days later PSEi was trading at an all time high. PIP soared at 4.45 just 16 trading days after I bought the stock. My target price! You taught I’d get my 10.31% gain don’t you? Well, that same day, I sold it at 4.20. I lost 6.19% of my potential gain just because I didn’t stick to my plan! The next day the stock is still up, this time at 4.60. 

For comparison this is what I would have gained at these prices:

4.12% at 4.20

10.31% at 4.45

14.03% at 4.60

In truth, I wouldn't have caught it at it’s peak. Even experts can't do that on a regular basis. I would have been totally happy at 4.45. So why did I sell at 4.20 instead of my original plan of 4.45? 

When it pulled back at 4 in Jan 30, during that day the volume was extraordinarily high. I reassessed and thought, ok, this is going on a downtrend. I hated it, but I revised by target price at 4.20. That was still a decent 4.12%. Besides, I was also looking to buy MBT. I ended up buying it at 94.4 the same day I sold my PIP.

I revisited PIP's chart and knew I made a mistake. If you look at the chart before the breakout, the stock was significantly up supported with good volume. All indicators were also going up. Of course, my wanting to own MBT while it’s below 100 played a part when I sold, but if I only stuck with my original plan I wouldn’t have been so bum for losing 6.19%. Besides, MBT is still hovering at 94-95 as of last Friday (though it hasn’t dipped lower than my bought price). I know I can’t lose something I never really had, but going from 4.45 to 4.20 is hard to get over from. Hopefully I learned my lesson this time. Stick to the plan.